AFL Live Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers Stream AFL Football 2016 Online, AFL Round 05 Match will be kick off at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria , Australia, Monday 25 April 2016 online, 15.20 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Collingwood are playing considerably worse than most suspected, while Essendon are playing much better.
Jesse White has been dropped for the Pies, and will be replaced by American debutante Mason Cox.
Essendon loses Jayden Laverde after he was injured early in the game last week, and John Worsfold has an experienced trio to choose from for a replacement, with Courtenay Dempsey, Ryan Crowley and Jonathon Simpkin potential ins.
Collingwood are having a miserable time of it, and are playing arguably the worst football in the competition. They’re not applying themselves well enough in team defence, and are struggling to move the ball with any fluency. Losses to St Kilda and Melbourne, sides which finished below them last year, are disheartening for fans.
Essendon have had the third most disposals in the competition, employing a possession game that has helped them defensively (ranked 9th for points against), but without the speed of play that can help them to score (ranked last for scoring). They’re punching above their weight overall.
Collingwood hold a 7-3 advantage in the last 10 matches between the sides, including 4-1 on ANZAC day. The average total match score over the last four matches between the sides is 147.5.
The Pies are -13% POT and 42% ATS since the start of 2012 overall, and -5% POT and 40% ATS at the MCG in this time. Collingwood are -18% POT when starting at $1.60 or less since 2013.
Conversely, since 2013, the Bombers are +49% POT and 61% ATS when starting $2.60 or more.
The last two weeks we’ve made money betting against the Pies, when they’ve started warm favourite and lost comfortably both times. And yet here they are as warm favourite again.
It’s never a bad thing to keep betting against a team in bad form, particularly when they continue to be short. Collingwood are lost at sea, unable to stop the game from being played on opposition terms. Essendon have been playing a controlled brand of football, and will set themselves for a winnable match. Watch for them to bring the pressure early.
The Bombers best two performances this season have been at the MCG, with the bigger ground helping their possession game. They should be in it for a long way again.
B: J.Frost, N.Brown, A.Toovey
HB: A.Oxley, B.Reid, B.Sinclair
C: J.Crisp, A.Treloar, S.Sidebottom
HF: T.Varcoe, D.Moore, L.Greenwood
F: A.Fasolo, M.Cox, T.Cloke
Foll: B.Grundy, S.Pendlebury, T.Adams
I/C (from): J.De Goey, T.Langdon, J.Blair, J.Aish, B.Maynard, J.Howe, J.Smith
INS: J.Frost, M.Cox, B.Maynard, J.Smith
B: M.Dea, J.Gwilt, M.Baguley
HB: A.McDonald-Tipungwuti, M.Hartley, B.Goddard
C: J.Kelly, D.Zaharakis, O.Fantasia
HF: C.McKenna, M.Brown, A.Cooney
F: M.Stokes, J.Daniher, D.Parish
Foll: M.Leuenberger, Z.Merrett, C.Bird
I/C (from): M.Gleeson, C.Dempsey, P.Ambrose, K.Langford, R.Crowley, J.Simpkin, S.Grimley
INS: C.Dempsey, R.Crowley, J.Simpkin, S.Grimley
OUTS: J.Laverde (shoulder)