Australian Football League Live Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 21 match will be kickoff at The Gabba Stadium, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia, Saturday 13 August 2016 online, 13.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Each Brisbane game from this point on could be Justin Leppitsch’s last.
Brisbane beat Essendon by 37 points in Round 18, but their losses either side of that win have been by 79 to GWS, 94 to Port, and 138 against Adelaide, each one worse than before, playing with a lack of belief and hope.
Carlton put in their worst performance of the year last week, going down to St Kilda by 71 points in a display not in keeping with their previous three weeks, when they had narrow losses to West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn. They have now lost eight in a row.
Carlton lead Brisbane 6-4 in their last ten meetings, and their last four meetings at the Gabba have been split 4-4.
Brisbane are 33% ATS at the Gabba this year, with every match going over the total match points. They have won one of their last 11 Saturday day games. Brisbane are 41% ATS under Justin Leppitsch when starting $2.60 or greater.
Carlton are 60% ATS interstate this year, with one win from five matches at +20% POT. They are -26% POT and 54% ATS when starting $1.60 or less in the last three seasons.
You know what I’m going to say… but at $2.30 how can we look past Tom Rockliff on his home ground for most touches. He had 48 on the Blues in round 11 and will be massive again. The bargain here though is Rocky ($3.75) for most tackles. Expect 10+ and if anyone can beat that, then clap clap to them. Kade Simpson ($2.40) is always worth a look for most marks and after he claimed 10 last week, he’ll be right in with a shot again.
The question here is how to assess Carlton’s performance last week, which was clearly their weakest of the season, and can we expect them to bounce back. Are they going to revert to their disciplined ways, or has the end of the season come early for them?
Brisbane’s form has been consistently poor all year, and they have conceded huge scores to opposition sides that have forward weapons, which the Blues do not. The Lions have been able to score somewhat freely themselves, and we are going to see a clash of styles here.
We should have faith in Carlton to respond with pride, and if they do, they should cover the line. But if not, Brisbane could kick a score.
B: T.Cutler, D.Merrett, D.Gardiner
HB: M.Close, H.Andrews, S.Mayes
C: T.Rockliff, B.Keays, L.Taylor
HF: P.Hanley, A.Smith, E.Hipwood
F: R.Lester, J.Walker, D.Zorko
Foll: S.Martin, D.Rich, M.Robinson
I/C: R.Bastinac, J.Jansen, R.Mathieson, M.Hammelmann
EMG: J.Clayton, L.Dawson, J.Paine
IN: S.Martin, M.Close, J.Jansen, T.Cutler
OUT: J.Green (Foot), L.Dawson (Omitted), N.Robertson (Knee), J.Schache (general soreness)
B: Z.Tuohy, S.White, K.Simpson
HB: S.Docherty, J.Weitering, L.Plowman
C: D.Armfield, P.Cripps, B.Boekhorst
HF: J.Silvagni, L.Jones, E.Curnow
F: D.Cuningham, L.Casboult, D.Buckley
Foll: M.Kreuzer, B.Gibbs, S.Kerridge
I/C: A.Phillips, M.Wright, D.Thomas, S.Rowe
EMG: N.Graham, A.Everitt, K.Jaksch
In: L.Jones, D.Cuningham
Out: A.Walker (Retired), N.Graham (Omitted)