Australian Football League Live Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 10 match will be kick off at The Gabba Stadium, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia, Saturday 28 May 2016 online, 13.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
We’re yet to see the best of Hawthorn, but they should still be too strong for Brisbane.
Brisbane’s performance has dropped alarmingly since pushing Sydney all the way in Round 6, with three losses to Port, Collingwood and Melbourne (all sitting outside the eight) by an average of 69 points per match. They are refusing to give consistent effort amid their injury troubles.
Hawthorn are still a long way from producing peak form, having gone 2-2 over the last four rounds, with losses to contenders GWS and Sydney, and victories over lowly Fremantle and Richmond. The Hawks are playing average football, lacking the slickness and sharpness that is their trademark.
Hawthorn has won their last six against Brisbane, having played them once a year in this time. Seven of their last eight meetings have been at Aurora Stadium, and the Lions are the home side for the first time since 2008.
Brisbane has won three matches at the Gabba starting $4.50 or higher under Justin Leppitsch. They are 63% ATS in these matches, and have a POT of +89%. They are also 75% at the under.
Hawthorn cover the spread when interstate as the away side 50% of the time since 2012. 70% of these matches have gone the over. The Hawks are 60% ATS when starting $1.30 or shorter in the last three years.
I’ve been pumping up Sam Mitchell ($1.90) for too long and now it’s time to shop elsewhere. He’s far too short in stature and price, so let’s have a dabble at some value. Jordan Lewis ($6) had 31 last time he played the Lions and is starting to find some form. The Lions aren’t much chop, so I’ll also be taking Lewis at $4 to reach 30+. In recent weeks, key forwards have had a field day on the Lions and so will Jack Gunston. You can get him at $9 for the first goal and $3 to kick the biggest bag. Oh… also load up on “Red Bull Robbo” to have the most tackles. Mitch Robinson last week laid 10 and at $4.75 he’ll potentially have more this week.
Hawthorn reaches a weak part of their draw after a reasonably tough opening nine weeks, and it comes at an opportune time for them given they’re coming off a loss, and they now have half a dozen games to get their season into gear, because their current form will barely see them make the eight, let alone contending for the flag.
Brisbane needs to find the spirit that drove them to almost upset Sydney four weeks ago, and the Gabba does appear to be the only place they could do it. If they bring the same standard they did that day, they would stand a good chance of causing a huge upset. It’s not something that can be banked on.
B: R.Harwood, D.Merrett, J.Paine
HB: D.Rich, D.McStay, S.Mayes
C: R.Lester, A.Christensen, T.Bell
HF: P.Hanley, L.Taylor, N.Robertson
F: T.West, J.Schache, R.Bastinac
Foll: S.Martin, D.Zorko, M.Robinson
Int: B.Keays, T.Cutler, J.Freeman, R.Mathieson
Emerg: J.Green, C.Beams, B.Evans
OUTS: B.Evans (omitted)
B: T.Duryea, J.Frawley, B.Stratton
HB: S.Burgoyne, J.Gibson, G.Birchall
C: I.Smith, J.Lewis, B.Hill
HF: L.Breust, T.O’Brien, J.Gunston
F: P.Puopolo, J.Sicily, C.Rioli
Foll: J.Ceglar, S.Mitchell, L.Shiels
Int: W.Langford, M.Spangher, B.Hartung, B.McEvoy
Emerg: K.Brand, D.Howe, T.Miles
OUTS: K.Brand (omitted)