Australian Football League Live Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 06 match will be kick off at The Gabba Stadium, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia, Sunday 01 May 2016 online, 13.10 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
The Lions are playing brightly enough, but don’t have the class to test the professional Swans.
Brisbane will miss the rebound of Tom Cutler and the small forward skills of Josh Green, both out through injury. Ben Keays has been confirmed to debut, and Sam Mayes should also come back in.
For Sydney, Aliir Aliir will make his debut after coming close many times over the last couple of years, coming in for Ted Richards, who has fractured a cheekbone.
Brisbane have been struggling to get into games against superior opposition, but have hardly been disgraced against the likes of the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, North and West Coast. We could argue that they’re actually batting 100% in winnable games, thanks to their victory over Gold Coast.
Sydney have essentially done what has been expected of them so far, beating the teams below their level, and splitting games against fellow contenders 1-1 according to home ground advantage, losing to Adelaide away before defeating West Coast at home.
Sydney has defeated Brisbane the last eight times, by an average margin of 48 points. Four of these have been at the Gabba, by an average of 51 points.
Brisbane are 7 wins from 24 at the Gabba under Justin Leppitsch, at 5% POT, but 46% ATS. Against non-Qld teams, this drops to -7% POT and 43% ATS.
Since 2012, when interstate Sydney is 8% POT, 56% ATS and 58% at the under. Removing Victorian trips, the Swans are 19% POT, 65% ATS and 65% at the under.
Brisbane have had by far the unfriendliest draw of all the sides currently occupying the bottom rungs on the ladder, and it doesn’t get any easier here. By the end of this week, they will have played five of the likely top seven sides this season. In racing parlance, we’d say they’re “going okay for easier”.
Sydney are purring along beautifully, and get to put another notch in their belt as they eye off a top two position. The Lions just don’t have a good enough forward-line to trouble a Swans defence that is frugal against weaker opposition, and Franklin, Tippett, Heeney and co can look forward to plenty of opportunities to score up forward.
B D.Gardiner, D.Merrett, C.Beams
HB R.Harwood, H.Andrews, S.Mayes
C R.Lester, A.Christensen, L.Taylor
HF P.Hanley, T.Rockliff, R.Bewick
F J.Walker, T.Bell, B.Keays
Foll S.Martin, D.Zorko, M.Robinson
I/C: R.Bastinac, D.Rich, L.Dawson, D.McStay
IN S.Mayes, B.Keays, D.McStay
OUT T.Cutler (shoulder), J.Green (soreness), J.Schache (rested)
NEW: Ben Keays (19, Redland)
B D.Rampe, H.Grundy, N.Smith
HB C.Mills, J.Laidler, J.McVeigh
C I.Heeney, J.Kennedy, D.Hannebery
HF L.Parker, L.Franklin, J.Lloyd
F B.McGlynn, K.Tippett, T.Papley
Foll C.Sinclair, T.Mitchell, K.Jack
I/C: A.Aliir, H.Cunningham, G.Hewett, D.Robinson
OUT T.Richards (cheekbone)
NEW: Aliir Aliir (21, East Fremantle)