Australian Football League Live Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 04 math will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Sunday 17 April 2016 online, 15.20 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
The pressure is building on Collingwood, but Melbourne supporters are impatient too. One of these sides is going to be 1-3.
Collingwood brings in the class of Steele Sidebottom and Travis Varcoe, in for the injured duo Marley Williams and Brayden Maynard.
Melbourne loses the class of Bernie Vince to suspension and the reliability of Aaron Vandenberg to an ankle injury. They should get back Angus Brayshaw and Jeff Garlett, so there is some strength to come in.
Collingwood have been woefully out of form in the season proper after looking the goods in the NAB Challenge. They simply didn’t turn up against Sydney, pulled a rabbit out of an ugly hat against Richmond, and allowed St Kilda to run riot over them in the second half.
Melbourne won what they should have lost in Round 1, lost what they had to win in Round 2, and then almost pulled off the impossible in the wind against North, in an amazing game where 30 goals were kicked to one end of the ground.
Collingwood are 1-2 ATS so far this season, and 2-1 at the over. Melbourne are 2-1 ATS and 1-2 at the over so far in 2016. Under Nathan Buckley overall, the Pies are 43% ATS, while the Demons are 46% ATS under Paul Roos.
Melbourne has only won one of the past 10 matches against Collingwood. Since 2013, the Dee’s have only covered the spread two of six times when given a start between 0 and 10 points. They have only won three of 15 games when starting at $2.60 or less in this time.
We keep waiting for Collingwood to turn their season around, and so far we don’t know which Melbourne is going to turn up quarter-to-quarter, let alone game-to-game.
The way to beat the Pies is to apply frenetic pressure and trap them in their back half of the ground, forcing them to turn the ball over, whereby the opposition can attack from a position of strength. In the first quarter of Round 1, Melbourne showed they are able to bring the sort of intensity that can bring Collingwood unstuck, but they have been unable to consistently deliver it.
We should see a sharper Pies outfit thanks to the addition of Sidebottom and Varcoe, while Melbourne will feel the loss of Bernie Vince. That’s a three player swing the Pies way, which will have a material impact on proceedings.
B: B.Sinclair, N.Brown, T.Langdon
HB: T.Goldsack, B.Reid, A.Toovey
C: A.Oxley, A.Treloar, S.Sidebottom
HF: T.Varcoe, D.Moore, J.De Goey
F: A.Fasolo, T.Cloke, J.Howe
FOLL: B.Grundy, S.Pendlebury, T.Adams
I/C: J.Blair, J.Aish, L.Greenwood, J.Crisp
EMG: B.Macaffer, M.Goodyear, M.Cox
IN: A.Toovey, T.Varcoe, S.Sidebottom
OUT: M.Williams, M.Goodyear, B.Maynard
B: N.Jetta, T.McDonald, T.Bugg
HB: L.Dunn, H.Lumumba, C.Salem
C: J.Harmes, D.Tyson, C.Oliver
HF: J.Watts, S.Frost, M.Jones
F: D.Kent, J.Hogan, B.Kennedy
Foll: M.Gawn, N.Jones, J.Viney
I/C: A.Brayshaw, C.Pedersen, J.Hunt, J.Wagner
EMG: B.Stretch, A.Neal-Bullen, J.Grimes
IN: C.Pedersen, A.Brayshaw, J.Hunt
OUT: B.Vince, B.Stretch, A.vandenBerg
NEW: Jayden Hunt (21, Sandringham U18)