Australian Football League Live Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 04 math will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 16 April 2016 online, 01.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Geelong meets Essendon for the first of two occasions this year, a bonus for a top four contender.
Essendon will ring a few changes each week, to keep the team fresh and have a look at different players. Craig Bird, Jayden Laverde and Conor McKenna come in for Ryan Crowley, Jackson Merrett and Nick Kommer.
Geelong is giving Corey Enright a rest, to manage him through a long season, while bright young prospects Lincoln McCarthy and Jake Kolodjashnij have been dropped. In comes Tom Lonergan, Cory Gregson and Jordan Murdoch.
Geelong have offered up a mixed bag in 2016 so far – a ferocious win against the premiership favourites, a flat loss against a middle-of-the-road side, and a comfortable victory against a wooden spoon contender. The last of these will happen again this week.
Essendon will have to pick their battles in order to get a few wins this season, something they did in Round 2 against Melbourne. 10 goal losses either side of that win, to Gold Coast and Port, are to be the expected norm, but neither were they disgraced away from home in either of those matches.
Essendon and Geelong are both 1-2 ATS this season, with each also running at 43% ATS since the start of 2013. Essendon is 62% at the under since that time, with Geelong running at 55%. At the MCG these figures go to 59% for the Dons, and rise markedly to 69% for the Cats.
Geelong has won the last four clashes between these sides, and nine of the last ten. These nine wins have been at an average margin of 56 points.
Geelong will have to avoid the trap that befell them in Round 2, when they put up a flat performance against GWS, but even if they replicate the effort from that game, it would still be enough to win here.
David Zaharakis, Zach Merrett have been in outstanding form for Essendon, and must be watched, feeding the ball to Joe Daniher who is on track to become the gun Bomber fans have hoped for. But the mid-forward explosiveness of Paddy Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, along with the support crew led by Mitch Duncan and Steven Motlop means the Cats talent runs too deep.
Given that Essendon usually fails to trouble the Cats at the best of times, this should only be one way traffic.
B: M. Dea, P. Ambrose, M. Baguley
HB: J. Gwilt, M. Hartley, B. Goddard
C: J. Kelly, D. Zaharakis, D. Parish
HF: Conor McKenna, Mitch Brown, Adam Cooney
F: M. Stokes, J. Daniher, A. McDonald-Tipungwuti
FOLL: M. Leuenberger, K. Langford, C. Bird
I/C: M. Gleeson, O. Fantasia, J. Laverde, Z. Merrett
EMG: N. Kommer, J. Simpkin, S. Grimley
IN: C. McKenna, C. Bird, J. Laverde
OUT: N. Kommer (Omitted), R. Crowley (Omitted), J. Merrett (Omitted)
B: A. Mackie, H. Taylor, L. Henderson
HB: J. Bartel, T. Lonergan, C. Guthrie
C: S. Motlop, P. Dangerfield, M. Duncan
HF: Josh Caddy, Rhys Stanley, Shane Kersten
F: C. Gregson, T. Hawkins, D. Menzel
FOLL: Z. Smith, N. Cockatoo, J. Selwood
I/C: M. Blicavs, D. Lang, J. Murdoch, T. Ruggles
EMG: J. Bews, J. Kolodjashnij, L. McCarthy
IN: T. Lonergan, C. Gregson, J. Murdoch
OUT: L. McCarthy (Omitted), J. Kolodjashnij (Omitted), C. Enright (Managed)