Australian Football League Live Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 18 match will be kickoff at Simonds Stadium, South Geelong, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 23 July 2016 online, 19.25 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Geelong can probably kiss top four goodbye if they lose, and Adelaide may drop from second to seventh if they go down.
Geelong have fallen away after a string of impressive wins against top eight sides, falling to Geelong pre-bye, losing to Sydney post-bye, before struggling to put away the Dockers last week.
Adelaide have now won eight in a row, at an average winning margin of 45 points with the smallest victory being by 22 points. Bigger scalps have included GWS, West Coast and North, while they comfortably handled an in-form Collingwood last week.
Geelong leads Adelaide 7-3 in their last ten meetings, with the Crows losing all of their matches at Simonds stadium in that time. Geelong were the last team to beat Adelaide, by 26 points in Round 8.
The Cats have lost five matches as favourite this year, the equal most of any side. Their form at Simonds is about the same as elsewhere since the start of 2015: +2% POT at Simonds v +2% POT elsewhere, and 46% ATS in both stats.
Adelaide have the best record at the line this season. They have started underdog in seven matches this year, winning four of them. The Crows are five from eight on the road in 2016, at +4% POT and 75% ATS. 75% of their road games have gone over the total match points.
As expected, Dangerfield ($2.75) is very short to take out the Fantasy market here and should do it with ease. He had 129 on the Crows in round eight and this week, he’s at home where he has averaged 119 this year. Joel Selwood had a game high nine tackles last week and won me my lunch money for the week and this week he’s once again at great odds ($8) again.
Forgetting the game being played in Geelong or the Cats’ Dangerfield-inspired reputation, Adelaide have played the better football more consistently over a period of a couple of months now. If this match was played in Sydney for instance, the Crows would be favourites.
But, Adelaide are indeed due for a loss, and Geelong are due to play good football again. The Cats forward-line isn’t functioning as well as it had been earlier in the year, and the midfield and backline are struggling to create run. The Crows entire outfit is working in synch.
Geelong may be inspired by facing a team they have already beaten, but Adelaide’s value it too great to ignore.
B: J.Kolodjashnij, T.Lonergan, H.Taylor
HB: J.Bews, A.Mackie, C.Enright
C: M.Blicavs, J.Selwood, S.Motlop
HF: S.Kersten, R.Stanley, M.Duncan
F: J.Bartel, T.Hawkins, D.Menzel
Foll: Z.Smith, P.Dangerfield, C.Guthrie
I/C: N.Cockatoo, J.Cowan, L.McCarthy, T.Ruggles
Emerg: M.Clark, D.Lang, S.Menegola
Ins: J.Bews, J.Bartel
Outs: L.Henderson (concussion), J.Murdoch
B: L.Brown, D.Talia, J.Lever
HB: R.Laird, K.Hartigan, K.Cheney
C: B.Smith, S.Thompson, R.Atkins
HF: C.Cameron, J.Jenkins, T.Lynch
F: E.Betts, T.Walker, M.McGovern
Foll: S.Jacobs, R.Sloane, M.Crouch
I/C: B.Crouch, R.Douglas, J.Lyons, R.Henderson
Emerg: P.Seedsman, D.Mackay, R.O’Brien
Ins: L.Brown, R.Laird
Outs: D.Mackay, P.Seedsman