Australian Football League Live Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 18 match will be kickoff at Sydney Cricket Ground Stadium, Moore Park, New South Wales, Australia, Saturday 23 July 2016 online, 13.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Sydney needs to keep winning to try to claw their way back into the top four.
Sydney have now gone win-loss-win-loss over their last six matches, belying their reputation for consistency. They lost by less than a goal to both the Dogs and Hawks after conceding the last goal of those games, but in between beat Geelong at Simonds Stadium with rare ease.
Carlton have lost five in a row, but put in their best performance since early June last week against the Eagles. Prior to that, they had lost to Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS and St Kilda, all teams in good recent form.
Sydney have won six in a row against Carlton, with the last three being by 60 points or more. Lance Franklin has been the leading goalkicker on the ground in his last seven matches against the Blues, which dates back to 2010.
Sydney have lost five matches as favourite this season, the equal most of any side. They’ve lost three of the last four matches they started favourite. The Swans are 71% ATS at the SCG this year, and six of their seven matches there have been under the total match points.
Carlton have only won two of their last fifteen interstate games, and are 27% ATS in those matches, only covering the line twice. Six of their last nine interstate matches have gone over.
It’s always tough splitting the Sydney midfielders, so I’ve gone straight to the AFL Fantasy market to find Tom Mitchell ($4.25). He had a game high 143 against the Blues in round two and back at the SCG, he’ll he huge again. Last week, Mitchell had 26 handballs, yep 26 against the Hawks, eight clear of Kennedy and Parker. He’s paying a very nice $4.50 to be handball happy again. Buddy Franklin ($5.50) is always a chance to take the most marks and the way he’s been pushing up the ground in recent weeks, he’d be every chance to push double figures here.
Sydney are going to win this game, so it’s only a question of by how much.
The Swans have put their share of weaker opposition away this year, beating Collingwood by 80 points in Round 1 and Carlton by 60 the week after. They also have big wins over Essendon and Melbourne and would have beaten Gold Coast by ten goals or more in dry conditions.
Carlton looked to find some form last week, and the smaller SCG may help their restrictive game style in defending the Swans, but also may prevent them from scoring which has been a big issue in recent times. Something like a Sydney win 100-40 looks the likely scenario.
B: D.Rampe, A.Aliir, N.Smith
HB: J.Lloyd, H.Grundy, C.Mills
C: D.Hannebery, J.Kennedy, K.Jack
HF: D.Towers, L.Franklin, G.Hewett
F: I.Heeney, G.Rohan, T.Papley
Foll: S.Naismith, L.Parker, T.Mitchell
I/C: H.Cunningham, J.Foote, X.Richards, C.Sinclair
Emerg: B.Jack, T.Leonardis, T.Nankervis
Ins: I.Heeney, H.Cunningham, J.Foote, X.Richards
Outs: T.Richards, J.McVeigh (groin), B.McGlynn, Z.Jones (ankle)
B: Z.Tuohy, S.Rowe, K.Simpson
HB: D.Buckley, L.Plowman, S.Docherty
C: D.Armfield, P.Cripps, E.Curnow
HF: S.Kerridge, S.White, J.Silvagni
F: M.Wright, L.Casboult, C.Curnow
Foll: M.Kreuzer, B.Gibbs, N.Graham
I/C: A.Phillips, J.Weitering, L.Sumner, B.Boekhorst
Emerg: J.Lamb, M.Whiley, K.Jaksch
Ins: L.Casboult, B.Boekhorst
Outs: K.Jaksch, J.Lamb