Australian Football League Live Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 11 match will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 04 June 2016 online, 13.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
The Hawks continue to tick along, while the Demons are yet to find consistency.
Hawthorn’s form continues to be mixed. Their last five matches have seen three wins, all over bottom five sides (Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane), by an average margin of 45 points. The other two games have been losses to contenders GWS and Sydney.
Melbourne are proving to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the competition, and have now gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss in their last six matches. They were exceedingly poor against Port last week, after putting Brisbane away with authority the week before.
Melbourne hasn’t beaten Hawthorn since 2006, with the Hawks winning 12 in a row. All of these matches have been at the MCG, and the average margin has been 55 points.
The Demons are +15% POT and 50% ATS at the MCG under Paul Roos, with 69% of those matches going the under. Against fellow Victorian sides, they are +31% POT, 45% ATS and 64% at the under.
In the same time period (2014-16), Hawthorn have only lost four matches against Victorian teams at the MCG, and are 63% ATS. Two of these losses have been when starting under $1.25.
The Hawks are proving to be nothing more than a middle-of-the-road side in the first half of 2016, which is not to say they can’t improve to become more than that. We just haven’t seen any evidence of it yet. The fact they’ve only covered the spread three times so far tells us how often they’ve performed below expectations.
But for all of that, Hawthorn have still only lost three games all year, and only to sides currently sitting in the top four. Melbourne have been capable but inconsistent, and are giving up too many easy goals out the back after pressing up too far and not working hard enough back.
The Demons, despite missing Jack Viney, can keep the Hawks honest, but expect the likes of Paul Puopolo, Luke Bruest and Cyril Rioli to get off the chain enough to secure victory.
B: T.Duryea, J.Frawley, B.Stratton
HB: S.Burgoyne, J.Gibson, G.Birchall
C: I.Smith, J.Lewis, B.Hill
HF: L.Breust, T.O’Brien, J.Gunston
F: P.Puopolo, J.Sicily, C.Rioli
Foll: J.Ceglar, S.Mitchell, L.Shiels
Int: D.Howe, K.Stewart, B.Hartung, B.McEvoy
Emg: K.Brand, T.Miles, A.Litherland
Ins: D.Howe, K.Stewart
Outs: M.Spangher, W.Langford
B: J.Hunt, T.McDonald, N.Jetta
HB: T.Bugg, O.McDonald, J.Wagner
C: D.Kent, J.Trengove, B.Vince
HF: B.Stretch, J.Watts, J.Garlett
F: C.Petracca, J.Hogan, C.Dawes
Foll: M.Gawn, N.Jones, D.Tyson
Int: C.Oliver, S.Frost, A.Vandenberg, J.Harmes
Emg: C.Pedersen, V.Michie, J.Grimes
Ins: J.Trengove, C.Dawes, C.Oliver, S.Frost, A.Vandenberg
Outs: C.Garland, B.Kennedy, J.Viney, B.Newton, A.Neal-Bullen