Australian Football League Live Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 07 match will be kick off at ANZ Stadium, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Saturday 07 May 2016 online, 16.35 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Essendon faces their most daunting challenge yet in 2016, travelling to take on a powerful Sydney.
Sydney has dropped feelgood story Aliir Aliir after one game, to welcome back former All-Australian Nick Smith.
Essendon has rung the changes once more, losing top-up Matthew Stokes to a hamstring, resting Martin Gleeson and impressive first year player Darcy Parish, and dropping two others. Ex-Kangaroo Nathan Grima plays his first game, and the experience of Mark Baguley and Craig Bird against his old side will help. Shaun McKernan also comes in, along with debutant Mason Redman.
Sydney have snuck their way along to a 5-1 record, and come into this off two wet weather games in a row, where they comfortably accounted for West Coast at home, and just got over the line away to Brisbane. They should appreciate dry conditions this week.
Essendon are coming in off two of their poorer performances, and their big problem is a 1-5 record even though they’ve only played one really good side. Bomber fans haven’t seen the worst of it yet, but it’s coming.
Load up on any Sydney player here against the Essendon witches hats and you can’t go wrong. The safest bet in this game isn’t trying to pick who will be the biggest and best, but to get on the Swan’s midfield to have a field day. Hannebery ($1.65), Kennedy ($1.85) and Parker ($1.85) should all find the pill 30+ times. Luke Parker has been a tackling machine over his last three games clocking up 9, 9 and 6. Paying $5 in a less than convincing field should see him cuddle his way to winning you some cash.
Sydney has won eight of the last ten against Essendon, including the last five in a row. The leading possession winner in the last four matches between the two has been either Luke Parker or Josh Kennedy.
The Swans are +6% POT, 53% ATS and 50% at the under in SCG matches since 2012. They have conceded a start of 60 points or greater four times at the SCG in this time, for four wins, but 50% ATS.
Since the start of 2014, Essendon are -41% POT and 33% ATS when travelling interstate, in low-scoring affairs, given they are 75% at the under.
This match is only going to go one way, and the result is beyond doubt, or as much as it can be in the post-Leicester world we live in.
Sydney simply don’t drop these matches, and if these teams were to be combined, only four or five Essendon players would get a game. The Swans are coming off a tough game, so may not be at their sharpest, and drop-off in intensity will be understandable. But percentage could well play a crucial role in shaping a top two or four position at the end of the year, so a big win is required.
Fine conditions should ensure a ten goal victory to Sydney, but how far they go beyond that will depend on the mental application of both sides, which is hard to predict. The one certainty is that the Sydney mids will be sharing a lot of the ball.
B: D.Rampe, H.Grundy, Z.Jones
HB: J.McVeigh, J.Laidler, C.Mills
C: D.Hannebery, J.Kennedy, I.Heeney
HF: H.Cunningham, L.Franklin, J.Lloyd
F: T.Papley, K.Tippett, B.McGlynn
Foll: C.Sinclair, L.Parker, K.Jack
I/C: T.Mitchell, D.Robinson, G.Hewett, N.Smith
EMG: A.Aliir, T.Nankervis, D.Towers
B: A.McDonald-Tipungwuti, N.Grima, M.Baguley
HB: J.Kelly, M.Hartley, M.Dea
C: J.Simpkin, D.Zaharakis, B.Goddard
HF: O.Fantasia, M.Brown, A.Cooney
F: C.Dempsey, J.Daniher, M.Redman
Foll: M.Leuenberger, Z.Merrett, R.Crowley
I/C: C.Bird, J.Gwilt, S.McKernan, J.Polkinghorne
EMG: J.Merrett, P.Ambrose, K.Langford
INS: M.Redman, M.Baguley, N.Grima, C.Bird, S.McKernan
OUTS: D.Parish, S.Grimley, M.Stokes, M.Gleeson, K.Langford
NEW: Mason Redman (Glenelg), Nathan Grima (Nth Melbourne)