AFL Live GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks Stream AFL Football 2016 Online, AFL Round 06 Match will be kick off at Spotless Stadium, Sydney Olympic Park, New South Wales , Australia, Saturday 30 April 2016 online, 16.35 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
The Giants are harnessing some valuable momentum, while the Hawks keep getting outplayed but winning by three points.
GWS lose Devon Smith, who can’t get continuity this year, but bring in a more-than-handy forward-mid replacement in Rhys Palmer.
Hawthorn lose Will Langford to a corked quad, and omit Billy Hartung. Kieran Lovell comes in for his debut, and the club will get another look at utility Daniel Howe.
GWS appear to have matured since their Round 1 defeat at the hands of Melbourne, when they threw away victory due to hubris. Their only loss since has been to an in-form Sydney, while they have easily accounted for inferior opponents along the way. It’s time to measure themselves against a worthy opponent once more.
Hawthorn have been sneaking along with three point victory after three point victory, playing their best football in patches and doing just enough to stay close and steal the four points. Renowned for their heavy scoring in the past, they are currently ranked only 10th in attack.
Josh Gibson caught my eye in this game paying $7 for most touches in group B. Although he was quiet last week after returning from injury, he has the potential to be huge on his day, like he did in round two when he had 44 disposals. Luke Hodge does present with some value to have 30+ possessions paying $4. Last time he played the Giants he had 26 and although his form has been down, he can certainly reach that number like he has many times before.
Hawthorn lead 3-1 in their meetings with GWS, but it is 1-1 in the last two years, with both games decided by 10 points or less. The Giants have covered the spread in their last three matches against the Hawks.
GWS are 16% POT and 59% ATS at Spotless Stadium since their inception, but are -24% POT and 74% ATS against Victorian teams there. The Giants have only won three games in a row once in their history, but a defeat of the Hawks was part of that.
Since the start of 2012, Hawthorn are -1% POT and 60% ATS interstate, as opposed to 3% POT and 57% overall. In that time they are 8% POT when starting at $1.60 or greater.
GWS has troubled Hawthorn relative to their respective standings over the last couple of years.
There has been a weight of money the Giants way this week, with punters figuring that the Hawks are due to lose given the way they’ve been flirting with doing so. But Hawthorn are now only missing one rock solid lock out of their best 22, and even though they may have been lucky to beat the Crows, they still played quality football in large patches, while GWS did take a while to put away the Saints.
GWS can certainly give the Hawks a run for their money, but the market has clearly over-corrected here, and the value certainly lies with Hawthorn.
B: H.Shaw, P.Davis, M.Buntine
HB: Z.Williams, J.Patfull, A.Kennedy
C: N.Wilson, D.Shiel, R.Griffen
HF: L.Whitfield, J.Patton, J.Kelly
F: T.Greene, J.Cameron, C.Ward
Foll: S.Mumford, T.Scully, S.Coniglio
I/C: R.Palmer, S.Johnson, J.Steele, R.Lobb
EMG: N.Haynes, A.Tomlinson, S.Reid
OUTS: D.Smith (knee)
B: S.Burgoyne, J.Frawley, L.Hodge
HB: J.Gibson, B.Stratton, G.Birchall
C: B.Hill, J.Lewis, I.Smith
HF: L.Breust, T.O’Brien, J.Gunston
F: P.Puopolo, J.Ceglar, C.Rioli
Foll: B.McEvoy, S.Mitchell, L.Shiels
I/C: J.Sicily, T.Duryea, K.Lovell, D.Howe
EMG: B.Hardwick, B.Hartung, K.Brand
INS: K.Lovell, D.Howe
OUTS: B.Hartung (omitted), W.Langford (quad)
NEW: Kieran Lovell (Kingborough/Tasmania U18)