AFL Live Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 14 match will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 26 June 2016 online, 13.40 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Richmond are fresh off a break, but can Brisbane product a spike in performance before their bye?
Richmond have sneakily won four out of five, with victories over Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon and Gold Coast, but the loss in between to North Melbourne sticks in the mind, humiliated on the big stage of Frida night football.
Brisbane are on a nine match losing streak, coming off a 49 point loss to West Coast, 83 point loss to Fremantle, and 38 point loss to Carlton in recent weeks. They appear bereft of direction out on the field.
Richmond have won nine of the last ten against Brisbane, including the last eight in a row. Richmond’s three MCG wins in that time have each been between 23-26 points.
Since the start of 2014, Richmond’s record at the MCG against non-Victorian sides is six wins from 11 games, at -15% POT and 36% ATS. The last three losses under those circumstances have come as favourites.
Brisbane has won 5 from 26 interstate under Justin Leppitsch, at -32% POT and 31% ATS. They’ve lost their last 14 matches on the road. The Lions have failed to cover the line in their last 10 interstate matches.
Firstly, I’m expecting Mitch Robinson to tag Trent Cotchin. Therefore, despite his form, we just can’t touch Cotch in any markets in this game. Dustin Martin might have a day out if the attention is focused elsewhere though and is paying $5.50 to lead the Fantasy points. He loves the MCG and has scored 137,123 and 123 there in his last three games. But of course, he’ll need to beat Tom Rockliff ($2). There’s a chance he can, but we actually can’t look past Rocky again after he has had 38, 34 and 48 touches in his last three games. He’s paying more than double your money to win most disposals, and should find plenty of the ball once again.
Richmond usually struggles to find their best form in the first third of the season, but tend to hold it well enough once it arrives, particularly against sides around or below them on the ladder. This has again been in evidence in 2016, and the Tigers should have no trouble accounting for a Lions outfit that are an extremely poor travelling side.
Richmond did struggle to shake of Gold Coast before the bye, and also came back from the bye poorly against West Coast last year, so taking prohibitive odds appears a risk, as does any high lines, despite Brisbane’s ineptitude.
The Brisbane midfield will win enough possession to make things interesting, but Richmond will be able to kick a winning score, with Jack Riewoldt due for a bag.
B: D.Astbury, A.Rance, D.Grimes
HB: B.Deledio, T.Hunt, B.Ellis
C: S.Grigg, B.Griffiths, T.Cotchin
HF: D.Martin, R.Conca, K.Lambert
F: J.Riewoldt, S.Lloyd, T.Vickery
Foll: S.Hampson, A.Miles, S.Edwards
Int: J.Batchelor, N.Vlastuin, J.Short, C.Menadue
Emg: N.Broad, J.Townsend, J.Castagna
Ins: N.Vlastuin, C.Menadue
Outs: C.Ellis (groin), D.Rioli (family reasons)
B: D.McStay, D.Merrett, D.Gardiner
HB: D.Rich, H.Andrews, S.Mayes
C: T.Rockliff, R.Mathieson, R.Bewick
HF: P.Hanley, L.Taylor, J.Jansen
F: J.Walker, J.Schache, R.Bastinac
Foll: S.Martin, R.Lester, M.Robinson
Int: B.Keays, J.Green, E.Hipwood, M.Hammelmann
Emg: C.Beams, M.Paparone, L.Dawson
Ins: R.Mathieson, H.Andrews, D.McStay, J.Green, M.Hammelmann
Outs: R.Harwood (knee), M.Paparone, D.Zorko, C.Beams, T.Cutler (hamstring)
New: Matthew Hammelmann (Morningside)