AFL Live St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 14 match will be kick off at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 26 June 2016 online, 19.25 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Geelong are the form side of the competition, and St Kilda will do well to stick with them for long.
St Kilda hit their bye off a win over Carlton, continuing the season-long trend of mixing their form. Prior to that, they had been extremely poor in an 88 point loss to Adelaide, but solid in victories over Fremantle and Essendon at Etihad.
Geelong have been the hottest side in the AFL over the past three weeks, bouncing back from losses to Collingwood and Carlton with wins over contenders like GWS, North and Western Bulldogs, each victory more impressive than the last.
Geelong had won five in a row against the Saints before last years draw.
St Kilda have started $4.90 or more 23 times under Alan Richardson, for two wins at -7% POT and 35% ATS. Both wins have been at Etihad, where they are 44% ATS at those odds. Their overall record at the venue since the start of 2013 is 10 from 30 at +25% POT and 53% ATS.
Geelong has been +14% POT and 43% ATS at Etihad in the last five years. In their last 20 games at the venue, they have scored 95 points or more 15 times, conceding 100 points or more 5 times.
Of course Dangerfield is going to be the top of all the markets here and if you are like me and think that Mav Weller will tag him this week (good luck Mav) then we might have some value around him. Jack Steven has scored over 130 Fantasy points in three of his last four games and loves playing at Etihad. He’s paying $4.25 to have the most points which is really good value, along with Nick Riewoldt ($5) who hasn’t scored under 116 at Etihad from six games this year.
Geelong shouldn’t have too much trouble accounting for St Kilda given their last three games have produced wins over much more highly credentialed rivals. But the memory of losses to Collingwood and Carlton lingers, and the Cats will want to avoid the suspicion that they can mentally switch off.
The Saints don’t have any counter to the Dangerfield and Selwood show, and are struggling for fit tall men down back to stand Tom Hawkins. The Cats are well set up to handle St Kilda’s tall forwards, with Taylor, Henderson and Lonergan in good form down back.
It should be an easy win to Geelong, but the Saints will be hoping to apply pressure enough to keep the margin manageable.
St Kilda Saints:
B: J.Geary, L.Delaney, D.Roberton
HB: J.Newnes, S.Gilbert, J.Webster
C: L.Montagna, D.Armitage, S.Savage
HF: M.Weller, N.Riewoldt, J.Gresham
F: D.Minchington, J.Bruce, T.Membrey
Foll: T.Hickey, S.Ross, J.Steven
Int: L.Dunstan, B.Acres, P.McCartin, N.Wright
Emg: J.Lonie, J.Sinclair, L.Pierce
Ins: N.Riewoldt, P.McCartin
Outs: T.Lee (knee), L.Pierce
B: A.Mackie, T.Lonergan, H.Taylor
HB: T.Ruggles, L.Henderson, C.Enright
C: J.Murdoch, J.Selwood, M.Blicavs
HF: S.Kersten, Z.Smith, S.Motlop
F: J.Bartel, T.Hawkins, D.Menzel
Foll: R.Stanley, M.Duncan, P.Dangerfield
Int: C.Gregson, C.Guthrie, J.Kolodjashnij, L.McCarthy
Emg: J.Bews, D.Lang, N.Vardy
Outs: J.Caddy (knee)