Australian Football League Live Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 12 match will be kick off at Gabba Stadium, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia, Saturday 11 June 2016 online, 16.35 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Both sides are looking for their second win of the season.
Brisbane only have one win and now have lost seven in a row, and not getting close to anyone since pushing Sydney in Round 6. Their average losing margin since then, against Port, Collingwood, Melbourne, Hawthorn and Carlton, has been 61 points.
Fremantle finally cracked it for their first win last round, and made it a big one over Essendon, to the tune of 79 points. This came off a loss to St Kilda when they were in front at three quarter time, so the wheel appears to be turning ever so slightly.
Fremantle has won eight in a row against Brisbane, including three wins at the Gabba. One or both of Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne has been the leading goal-scorer in their last three clashes.
Brisbane at the Gabba under Justin Leppitsch are seven from 27 at -7% POT and 48% ATS, and have only covered the spread once in six matches when starting $2.30 or less there.
Fremantle are -10% POT and 50% ATS interstate under Ross Lyon. When starting at $2 or less interstate, these figures rise to +22% POT and 65% ATS, both ranked number one in the league.
Tom Rockliff vs Lachie Neale is going to be a massive battle. But… Mitch Robinson might just tag Neale who has ran free all year. Rockliff ($1.90) after his 48 touches last week, must be our horse to bet on here. He had 184 Fantasy points last week and even scored 154 and 172 on the Dockers in his last two games against them. He’s short at $1.90 in this market, but I really can’t see him getting not have 150+. Finally, Dayne Zorko ($4.50) to have 30+ touches is unbelievable value. He’s been running hot this year and should find plenty of the pill.
Fremantle’s first win should beget another, having overcome the hurdle that had seen them go winless for ten rounds.
The Dockers found the freedom to score heavily against Essendon last week, and Brisbane have proven to have an even leakier defence across the course of the season. The Lions midfield is proving to be less than the sum of its parts, and Freo should be able to win more of the ball and then squeeze up on their defence.
The Dockers record against Brisbane is another tick, as is their ability to get the job done when in the market interstate, and they should be able to control the contest.
B: R.Harwood, D.Merrett, H.Andrews
HB: D.Rich, D.McStay, S.Mayes
C: T.Rockliff, T.Bell, R.Bewick
HF: P.Hanley, L.Taylor, N.Robertson
F: T.West, J.Schache, R.Bastinac
Foll: S.Martin, D.Zorko, M.Robinson
Int: B.Keays, J.Jansen, T.Cutler, D.Gardiner
Emg: C.Beams, J.Freeman, R.Mathieson
IN: H.Andrews, R.Bewick, D.Gardiner
OUT: J.Paine (foot), A.Christensen (collarbone), J.Freeman
B: C.Sutcliffe, Z.Dawson, L.Spurr
HB: H.Crozier, S.Collins, D.Mundy
C: L.Weller, L.Neale, T.Sheridan
HF: M.Barlow, C.Mayne, M.Walters
F: D.Pearce, M.Taberner, H.Ballantyne
Foll: Z.Clarke, N.Suban, S.Hill
Int: D.Tucker, C.Blakely, J.Hannath, T.Smith
Emg: M.de Boer, T.Mzungu, B.Grey
Ins: Z.Clarke, J.Hannath, T.Smith
Outs: M.Apeness (collarbone), M.Pavlich (groin), J.Griffin (hamstring)