Australian Football League Live Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 07 match will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 07 May 2016 online, 13.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Collingwood drops Nathan Brown and loses Tom Langdon and Ben Sinclair to injury. They bring back Jesse White, to the horror of Pie fans, as well as get another look at ex-Lion James Aish, and Ben Crocker makes his debut.
Carlton looks much stronger for the inclusion of gun mid Patrick Cripps, and utilities Andrew Walker and Andrejs Everitt. Jacob Weitering will be missed with his shoulder, while Andrew Phillips and Nick Graham can be covered.
Collingwood has shown signs of life in the last two weeks, with a strong win over an admittedly poor Essendon, and they challenged West Coast over in Perth through the middle stages, but were weak early and late in that game.
Carlton have won two on the trot, against Fremantle over there and Essendon. Both victories have been dog-ugly, but the Blues aren’t looking for prettiness, just effectiveness. Style will come later on to a developing team.
Adam Treloar has been on fire. He ranks third in the league based on his Fantasy average over the last three weeks (avg. 124) and has stepped up in his new team. This week, he plays Carlton who just happen to be his favourite team to score Fantasy points against. Last year he had 123 and 133 on the Blues and is paying well across the main markets. $3.75 to have the most touches and $3.50 to have the most Fantasy points. Finally, why not have a dabble on the inform Dale Thomas. The had seven tackles and is paying $8 to lead that category, and to top disposals in group B he’s sitting at $5 which is way ‘overs’ considering he had 31 last week.
Collingwood lead 8-2 in their last ten meetings, with an average winning margin of 31 points.
The Pies are -13% POT and 42% ATS under Nathan Buckley, and those numbers become -5% POT and 41% ATS at the MCG. They are 41% ATS and 41% at the under when $1.60 or shorter since the start of 2014.
Since the start of 2013, Carlton are 75% ATS in 16 matches starting $2.90 or longer at the MCG. They are 59% ATS at all venues in this time. They have covered the line three matches in a row coming into this.
The big money has come for Carlton since the naming of the teams, which is understandable given they were over the odds early in the week anyway.
When you look at the teams on paper, they match up pretty well – Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar for the Pies in the middle against Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps for the Blues, who also have the class of Simpson and an in-form Dale Thomas.
There shouldn’t be much between the two sides, but we can expect another low-scoring scrap given Carlton’s two wins have been comfortably under the expected match score, and neither side is that potent up forward.
B: A.Toovey, J.Frost, B.Maynard
HB: A.Oxley, B.Reid, J.Smith
C: T.Broomhead, A.Treloar, S.Sidebottom
HF: J.De Goey, D.Moore, L.Greenwood
F: A.Fasolo, M.Cox, J.Howe
Foll: B.Grundy, S.Pendlebury, J.Crisp
I/C: J.White, J.Blair, J.Aish, B.Crocker
EMG: B.Macaffer, T.Phillips, T.Cloke
INS: J.White, J.Aish, B.Crocker
OUTS: T.Langdon, N.Brown, B.Sinclair
NEW: (Ben Crocker, Oakleigh U18s)
B: Z.Tuohy, S.Rowe, S.Docherty
HB: A.Walker, L.Plowman, D.Thomas
C: K.Simpson, P.Cripps, J.Lamb
HF: L.Sumner, L.Casboult, M.Wright
F: S.Kerridge, S.White, L.Jones
Foll: M.Kreuzer, B.Gibbs, M.Murphy
I/C: C.Byrne, D.Armfield, E.Curnow, A.Everitt
EMG: D.Buckley, N.Graham, M.Jamison
INS: A.Everitt, P.Cripps, A.Walker
OUTS: J.Weitering, N.Graham, A.Phillips