Australian Football League Live Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 09 match will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Sunday 22 May 2016 online, 13.10 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Melbourne are looking to win as favourites for the first time this season, while the Lions have to show something after last week’s humiliation.
Melbourne have probably found their level for 2016, not quite good enough to challenge the best sides for four quarters, but too good for the lower classes. They lost no admirers against the Dogs last week.
Brisbane are coming off what is arguably their worst performance under Justin Leppitsch, conceding the first 21 scoring shots against the Pies before losing by 78 points. That loss followed on from a soulless effort against Port away from home.
Brisbane has a 6-4 record over Melbourne in their last ten meetings, including winning five of the last six. Only one of their last five match-ups has been at the MCG, in Round 16 last year when the Demons won 60-36.
The Lions have played only six matches at the MCG since the start of 2012, starting underdogs each time, winning two at and covering the spread four times. Brisbane have started underdog in all Victorian matches under Justin Leppitsch, winning four of 14, covering the spread five times.
Melbourne are +15% POT at the MCG under Paul Roos, and are 48% ATS and 68% at the under. The Demons have started favourite eight times in Victoria under Roos, winning once, which was against Brisbane.
We can be reasonably confident of which Melbourne is going to show up here, as they are proving to be quite a consistent team, except when they have the burden of favouritism, which they do here. On the other hand, which Brisbane are we going to get? The side that almost beat Sydney, or the one that capitulated to Collingwood?
If the Lions have any sense of pride they’ll at least play with intent. It won’t be good enough if the Demons bring their best, but it will be enough to keep the margin in check.
This match is a test of Melbourne’s mental professionalism as much as anything else. They simply have to start getting the job done in these situations, and should start here.
But so many losses as favourite under Paul Roos, and so few wins. You’d have to have a dollar on Brisbane at those odds, but if the Demons produce what they have been this year, an easy win should be on the cards, and it could be a big one.
B: B.Stretch, T.McDonald, T.Bugg
HB: J.Wagner, C.Garland, B.Vince
C: C.Oliver, D.Tyson, V.Michie
HF: J.Watts, C.Pedersen, J.Garlett
F: C.Petracca, J.Hogan, B.Kennedy
Foll: M.Gawn, N.Jones. J.Viney
I/C: (from) D.Kent, B.Newton, O.McDonald, J.Hunt, A.Neal-Bullen, J.Grimes, J.Harmes
Emer: A.Neal-Bullen, J.Grimes, J.Harmes
In: J.Grimes, B.Newton, D.Kent, A.Neal-Bullen, O.McDonald
Out: N.Jetta (suspension), C.Salem
B: R.Harwood, D.Merrett, J.Paine
HB: D.Rich, D.McStay, S.Mayes
C: R.Lester, A.Christensen, T.Bell
HF: P.Hanley, L.Taylor, R.Bewick
F: T.West, J.Schache, R.Bastinac
Foll: S.Martin, D.Zorko, M.Robinson
I/C: (from) B.Keays, J.Jansen, N.Robertson, E.Hipwood, J.Freeman, R.Mathieson, B.Evans
In: R.Mathieson, J.Paine, T.West, D.McStay, N.Robertson, J.Jansen, E.Hipwood, J.Freeman, B.Evans
Out: D.Gardiner (finger), D.Beams (knee), C.Beams (groin), J.Green, M.Paparone, J.Walker
New: Rhys Mathieson (Geelong U18), Jarrad Jansen (East Fremantle/Geelong), Eric Hipwood (Aspley)