Australian Football League Live Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 05 match will be kick off at Adelaide Oval Stadium, North Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, Saturday 23 April 2016 online, 19.45 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
A match between two yo-yo sides. Who’s going to be up and who’s going to be down?
Jared Polec and Brendon Ah Chee have paid the price of Port’s humiliation last week, while Cam O’Shea and Paul Stewart find themselves back in the side. Both are renowned for giving their all, so Ken Hinkley is looking for effort above all else.
Geelong brings back the calmness of Corey Enright down back, along with forwards Shane Kersten and Lincoln McCarthy. Lachie Henderson is a key out, being managed. Jordan Murdoch frustrates and has been dropped, as has Darcy Lang who hasn’t progressed from an impressive first season.
Port have had two wins by a combined 94 points, and two losses by a combined 144. Their two victories were against sides that won’t play finals, while both losses were to sides that probably will. They’ve got some work to do to prove they are not just making up the numbers.
Geelong haven’t been anywhere near as impressive as they showed against the Hawks in Round 1, and are coming off the ugliest possible win against Essendon. So far, they’ve convinced no-one of their top four credentials and are failing to put together four quarters of footy.
Geelong have won 11 of their past 12 against Port, but they are 1-1 in their last two meetings, both at Adelaide Oval. Chris Scott leads Ken Hinkley 5-1 in their coaching clashes.
Port are +17% POT and 55% ATS since the start of 2013. These figures are +21% POT and 55% ATS when playing in Adelaide. Geelong have been a poor travelling side over this time being -22% POT and 35% ATS.
The Cats have won 7 of 16 at -48% POT when starting $2 or under interstate since 2012. The Power are +27% POT when starting at $2 or longer in South Australia since 2012.
The first thing that stood out to me at first glance was the fact that the Power are paying $2.05 to win this at their home ground. After digging a little deeper I also saw that Sam Gray was paying $3.50 in group B to have the most touches. He had a poor game last week and doesn’t have much to beat to take the chocolates in the second group.
Both of these sides have been particularly ordinary at various stages this season, and they share common DNA in that they’ve both beaten Essendon unimpressively and lost to GWS.
We still don’t know what type of football Geelong wants to deliver, albeit we saw them beat Hawthorn in Round 1 thanks to a virtuoso Patrick Dangerfield performance. He hasn’t reached those heights since, and neither have the Cats.
Port are lacking in defensive resilience, but when they spark up at home, they are untouchable and unstoppable. We never know if we’re going to get that sort of performance but, as the stats indicate, they are value whenever the underdog at home.
Port Adelaide Power:
B: J.Hombsch, T.Jonas, J.Pittard
HB: C.O’Shea, J.Trengove, M.Broadbent
C: J.Toumpas, O.Wines, B.Ebert
HF: J.Neade, C.Dixon, H.Hartlett
F: R.Gray, J.Westhoff, C.Wingard
Foll: M.Lobbe, T.Boak, A.Young
I/C P.Stewart, K.Amon, D.Byrne-Jones, S.Gray
EMG: J.Impey, S.Colquhoun, B.Ah Chee
INS: C.O’Shea, P.Stewart
OUTS: J.Polec, B.Ah Chee
B: J.Kolodjashnij, T.Lonergan, M.Blicavs
HB: C.Guthrie, H.Taylor, C.Enright
C: M.Duncan, J.Selwood, A.Mackie
HF: J.Bartel, R.Stanley, S.Motlop
F: N.Cockatoo, T.Hawkins, D.Menzel
Foll: Z.Smith, J.Caddy, P.Dangerfield
I/C C.Gregson, S.Kersten, L.McCarthy, T.Ruggles
EMG: J.Bews, D.Lang, J.Murdoch
INS: C.Enright, S.Kersten, L.McCarthy
OUTS: L.Henderson (managed), D.Lang, J.Murdoch