Australian Football League Live Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power Stream AFL 2016 Seasons Week 06 match will be kick off at MCG Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Saturday 30 April 2016 online, 19.25 pm (AEDT) and its broadcast on Channel Seven, Foxtell.
Richmond couldn’t win a one-horse race at the moment, and Port are fluctuating wildly between and within games.
Richmond finally regains All-Australian Brett Deledio for his first game of the season, but lose their best player, Alex Rance. Hard-nut Jacob Townsend has been dropped, while the Tigers also bring back Shaun Hampson, to see how he works in tandem with Ivan Maric.
Port has made five changes, with huge forced outs in the shape of Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard and Jackson Trengove, while Matthew Lobbe has been dropped after struggling all season. Dougal Howard will replace the latter in the ruck, and Nathan Krakouer and Jared Polec are welcomed back and have proven they can provide drive in the past.
Richmond have been losing to everyone since an unconvincing Round 1 win over Carlton, and are only of only three teams yet to post 100 points or more in a game. They’re struggling to defend due to continuously turning the ball over in positions where the opposition can penalize them heavily.
Port are in a similar boat, getting outscored heavily, and unable to do much damage themselves. Taking out the first quarter against Geelong last week, their last seven quarters of football has produced 12 goals, while conceding 37. It’s not a recipe for success.
In this game, let’s have a look at who will have 30+ possessions as the markets are very generous. Ollie Wines ($4) hasn’t achieved the feat this year but hasn’t gone under 24 in each of his games. Richmond allowed Melbourne to find plenty of the ball last week and Wines will give it a fair shake at juicy odds. However, Brandon Ellis ($2.50) is the safer option after his 31 on the Power last year.
Richmond lead Port 5-4 in their last ten matches, with the only MCG game in that time a draw. Hardwick leads Hinkley 3-1 in the coaching stakes. Travis Boak has been the leading disposal winner in the last three matches between the sides.
Port has played six MCG matches under Hinkley, winning two for -1% POT, but are 67% ATS and 67% at the over. Their last MCG win was 2013.
Since 2012, Richmond is -25% POT and 43% ATS at the MCG against non-Victorian sides, with 71% of those games being at the under. The Tigers have started favourite three times this year but lost two of them.
This shapes as a battle between the lost and the aimless, but also the second and third worst defences in the league. It may mean a free-scoring battle, which would have helped Port if they had their full complement of damaging forwards, but they do not.
Richmond did show brief signs of life against Melbourne, and put together the odd passage of good play, but no-one could take such skinny odds on them, regardless of opposition outs.
Port will look to run and take the game on, but will they be able to manufacture a winning score? If Charlie Dixon can produce one of his best, and is given the space to do so, he could kick a bag with no Alex Rance to contend with.
B: D.Astbury, T.Chaplin, J.Batchelor
HB: C.Ellis, B.Houli, B.Deledio
C: B.Ellis, S.Grigg, K.McIntosh
HF: K.Lambert, D.Martin, T.Vickery
F: J.Riewoldt, S.Lloyd, S.Edwards
Foll: I.Maric, A.Miles, T.Cotchin
I/C: D.Rioli, C.Menadue, S.Morris, S.Hampson
EMG: T.Hunt, O.Markov, J.Castagna
INS: B.Deledio, S.Hampson
OUTS: A.Rance (suspension), J.Townsend (omitted)
B: J.Impey, T.Jonas, J.Pittard
HB: C.O’Shea, J.Hombsch, M.Broadbent
C: J.Toumpas, O.Wines, B.Ebert
HF: J.Neade, C.Dixon, H.Hartlett
F: A.Young, J.Westhoff, P.Stewart
Foll: D.Howard, T.Boak, B.Ah Chee
I/C: S.Gray, D.Byrne-Jones, N.Krakouer, J.Polec
EMG: S.Colquhoun, K.Amon, J.Butcher
INS: J.Impey, D.Howard, B.Ah Chee, N.Krakouer, J.Polec
OUTS: J.Trengove (suspended), R.Gray (hamstring), C.Wingard (concussion), M.Lobbe, K.Amon (omitted)